The Dernogalizer

October 4, 2008

Biden/Palin Debate

Filed under: National Politics — Matt Dernoga @ 1:22 am
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So I tuned into the VP debate Thursday night, and it went pretty much how I expected it to go. I expected that Palin would do better than the uber low expectations people had for her, and that people would make too much out of that. I hoped that Biden would not be too overbearing towards Palin and instead go after McCain. He did that.

Let me be clear, from a standpoint of substance, Biden won. He answered questions in depth and with expertise. Palin either dodged questions or answered them very broadly without specifics.

But your average American sitting down to tune into the debate hasn’t researched all of the positions of all of the candidates. They aren’t knowledgeable of the specifics. Far too many people identify with likability than a grasp of the issues. That’s how we ended up with George Bush. At least Palin is at the bottom of the ticket. My estimate is that this debate will have a similar effect that the Obama/McCain debate had. Your independent undecided voter is uncertain about Obama because of their perception of his inexperience. They are holding back because they aren’t sure whether or not Obama can be presidential, and in the Obama/McCain debate, Obama proved that he could when he went toe to toe with McCain. Some undecideds identified this, and it reflected in the polls, my estimate it boosted Obama by 3-4 points, and the economic crisis gave him another 4. These same undecideds were looking to see if Palin could fill the shoes of the presidency if necessary. In the eyes of the average independent undecided American, she proved she could. I think they are wrong, but I’m a Democrat, I live in MD, and I’m voting for Obama. Too many people don’t look at politics objectively when they’re analyzing something, I’m trying to do that.

So I expect Palin’s debate performance will negate Obama’s. I think McCain will jump 3-4 points in the national polls by next Tuesday. Ultimately though, unless there is a serious misstep by Obama, I think the economic crisis sealed the race for him. There are just too many landmines in the Electoral College for McCain to get the necessary votes to win, and not enough time to clear them all.

New Hampshire polls are showing Obama with double digit leads where McCain just led a couple weeks ago. The same with Michigan where it’s gone from a dead heat to Obama with a double digit lead, causing McCain to pull out his operations in Michigan and focus elsewhere. Obama is leading in places he shouldn’t and wasn’t expected to like Florida and North Carolina. And in the once pure toss-ups of Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvannia, and Minnesota, Obama has assumed leads ranging from 2-7 points. It’s worth nothing with many of these states, the polls survey “likely voters” which leaves out the vast majority of the new registered voters that the Obama campaign has worked fervently to register. I’d guess that most polls underscore Obama’s performance by 1-2 points.

So still a month to go, and stranger things have happened. This election has shifted all over the place suddenly an unexpectedly. But right now, unless there is a game-changer, the race is Obama’s to lose.

Oh, and my final take on the debate, and something I think and hope people will consider on voting day. McCain selected Palin because she would make him a better candidate. Obama picked Biden because he would make him a better president.

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August 29, 2008

Sarah Palin

Filed under: Energy/Climate,National Politics — Matt Dernoga @ 4:46 pm
Tags: , ,
God No!

God No!

Obviously my guess at Tim Pawlenty as the VP was wrong, as John McCain has chosen Sarah Palin, the two year governor of Alaska. From a perspective of how this affects the race, I really don’t know. Obama has held a slight lead in Alaska, and that state may now go to McCain, however it’s only three electoral votes, and there were other toss-up states such as Michigan where other VP selections would of had more of an effect on the electorate. How this affects the women’s vote? The funny thing is I don’t think Sarah Palin will represent any of the interests of women, but McCain having her on the ticket will get some of that vote. How much of that she yields will determine how much of a difference she makes in the electoral vote. At this point, I think that’s a toss-up, but no doubt some of the Hillary supporters who were upset Obama didn’t pick her may vote McCain/Palin.

From a political perspective, Sarah Palin hasn’t been in the game long. She was a mayor of a small town, and shes been Governor of Alaska for a couple of years. Take it how you will, it’s kind of ironic for the McCain campaign to attack Obama over and over again for not having enough experience and then pick Sarah. I really think that McCain is only picking Palin to try and get the women’s vote, I really think they had plenty of VP’s they would have picked over her, but saw this choice as making the most political headway. If they were going to pick a woman, I would’ve thought it would be Kay Baley Hutchinson, who has a lot more experience. The debate between Palin and Biden will be interesting, I quite frankly think Biden will clean house, but he has to do it in a non-jackass way to not alienate people watching who think hes talking down to her.

From a political perspective, I’m unsure how this will play out. However, from an environmental and energy perspective, this is extremely disturbing. Sarah Palin and Alaska are one of the MOST backwards states when it comes to energy, fighting climate change, and protecting the environment. In fact it’s so bad this pick has almost made me throw up. I truly hope that McCain wouldn’t listen to her on these issues if he were elected. For a state that may be the most affected by climate change in our country, Alaska’s policies have been mind boggling. They’ve spent hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars trying to fight all sorts of environmental protections whether it be ANWAR, polar bears as an endangered species, protections on environmentally sensitive areas from natural gas minings, they’ve performed aerial huntings of wolves even when there isn’t an overabundance of them, and they face the possibility of becoming endangered once again. Ironically, while Alaska led by Sarah Palin is in a complete state of denial about climate change, and the strongest advocate of environmental destruction within it’s own state, Alaska has been warming far more than the rest of our country. Alot of it’s infrastructure is built on permafrost, and that permafrost is now melting, softening the ground so that it’s like jello. This is causing billions of dollars of damage, far more than the residents are receiving back from the government for drilling and ruining their land while jeopardizing their children’s future.

AND BY THE WAY, THE NOTION THAT SARAH PALIN HAS TAKEN ON BIG OIL IS AN ABSOLUTE JOKE, NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE RECORD, BUT BECAUSE HER HUSBAND WORKS FOR BP.

Had to make sure that wasn’t missed. For more information of the environmental disaster that is Sarah Palin, heres a few more facts.

With the addition of Sarah Palin, the prospect of a McCain presidency for me goes from “might not be that bad” to “hell no”.

August 28, 2008

Pawlenty

Filed under: National Politics — Matt Dernoga @ 4:43 am
Tags: , ,
VP?

VP?

Not a long post here, just that I think McCain’s VP will be Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. A lot of conservatives talk about Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal as a great young conservative reformer who would be a good VP choice if he had a few more years on him. In my opinion, Tim Pawlenty is a more experienced and older politician who has a similar reputation to Jindal. Pawlenty is in my opinion more of a moderate conservative, and actually fits John McCain’s philosophy on a lot of issues. He’s quite popular in his state, and actually has worked in a bi-partisan fashion to make progress on climate change and renewable energy, one position McCain has in the past bucked the party line on. I think the McCain camp should realize that Pawlenty won’t come across as a “washington insider” since hes a governor, and hes young looking enough that it makes a good contrast to John McCain.

I don’t think the VP will be Kay Baley Hutchinson, or any woman for that matter because of the way McCain aides are answering the question of whether or not they will pick a woman. Their answers have the slightest apology and appeasement to them. People are saying it’s either Romney, Pawlenty, or Tom Ridge. I am saying that I think the VP will be Tim Pawlenty, and also that I think Tim Pawlenty would be a very smart choice. As a Democrat, I would be afraid of a McCain/Pawlenty ticket because of the draw it would have. I think any other ticket would do poorer in the polls. It’s kind of conflicting with me, since although he is a conservative, I like Pawlenty, but I don’t want him on a ticket that could beat us. I like Barack Obama and Joe Biden a lot more.

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